The Fourth Turning

This book is written by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It explores the concept of generational cycles and proposes a theory that history unfolds in a recurring and predictable pattern that every span lasts around a lifetime roughly 80-100 years which consists of four turnings. These turnings are driven by generational shift and societal and cultural transformations. The book was written in 1997, at which point the authors wrote that we were approaching the Fourth Turning which is the life changing period of crisis that marks every saeculum in history.

Trying to understand the current geopolitical situation, its essential to know some history of the current most powerful nation on earth, America. This post is nothing more than just a summary and my thoughts after reading the book. The full breadth of ideas within the book will amaze you. I highly recommend this book for those who loves to know history and excited for the future and at the same time prepare for it.

History can be viewed through the lens of cycles. Each cycle lasting 80 to 100 years, each containing four turnings which lasted 20 to 25 years. These turnings brings with it a different mood and culture. Each cycle starts with a post-crisis High, which is the First Turning. Its the period where theres a renewal of the life and community, general periods of stability of things that were lost during the preceding fourth turning of crisis. Then follows the Second Turning of an awakening era where the mood of the community shifts to the defiance and spiritual discovery. This era is followed by an Unraveling Third Turning where people become distant from one another and more individualistic. Finally, comes a Crisis era which is the Fourth Turning. In this turning, there is rise in threat to the livelihoods and which drives the individualistic mood to more of collective civic duty.

Here is an excerpt from the book, where the authors had predicted the situation of the decade of 2020s.

“Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World WarⅡ[…]

Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it[…] This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the means to inflict unimaginable horrors and, perhaps, will confront adversaries who possess the same.”

The central focus of the book is the Crisis which is the Fourth turning, which is believed to be a time of profound upheaval and transformation. The authors at the time of writing this book(1997), predicted that the United States is currently entering a new Crisis turning, marked by social, political, and economic turmoil. They argue that this crisis will shape the future of the nation and have far-reaching implications for generations to come. The Western world had gradually attached more importance to self than community which has left society with the material comfort but a sense of unease. This pattern has happened before and it forms a part of a life cycle that consists of generational turnings.

The most recent case of the First Turning was the American High after the World WarⅡ where the institutions and communities strengthened and individualism weakened. Second Turning was the Consciousness Revolution from the mid 1960s to early 1980s. The Third Turning was the Culture Wars, which began with Regan’s mid 1980s to the 2000s. The Fourth Turning is a last and decisive era of crisis and climax of this cycle. The similar turning of the previous cycle was of the Great Crash of 1929 to the World WarⅡ where the values regime results in the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. The beginning of the recent Fourth Turing perhaps started with 9/11. Therefore this one is expected to reach its climax and end in the decade of 2020s.

The book introduces four generational archetypes – Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist – and explains how they shape society and influence the course of history. Each archetype has its distinct values, attitudes, and behaviors, which interact in a cyclical manner to create the recurring patterns observed throughout history. When a generation reaches mid-life and occupies the leadership roles of society, it reflects this orientation on its social environment. This is one of the reasons why each generation exerts a dominant formative influence on people who are two phases younger. So, no two consecutive generations are alike.

A Prophet generations are the ones born during the First Turning. They grow up post crisis and become young and narcissistic adults in an Awakening. They later become moralistic mid-lifers during the Unraveling and when faced with the crisis of the Fourth Turning, they become wiser.

A Nomad generations are the ones born during an Awakening. They grow up to become get-it-done leaders during a crisis. They age into resilient post crisis.

A Hero generations are the ones who grow up increasingly protected as a children, they age as a team workers during crisis and evolve into energetic post-crisis powerful leader in the High and are often attacked during the next Awakening.

An Artist generations are the ones who grow up overprotected during a Crisis. They become sensitive young adults in the post-crisis and then become indecisive leaders during the Awakening which makes them age into empathic post-awakening.

The Authors urge individuals and society to recognize the patterns of history and take responsibility for shaping a positive future. They assert that understanding the cyclical nature of history can help navigate the challenges and opportunities of the present and build a better society for future generations.

The crises of the Fourth Turning can involve economic distress, social distress, geopolitical distress, ecological distress, military distress and technological distress. It even involve wars which results in the public mood exhaustion, relief and even optimism at last. Society and community will crave for the things that they took for granted. These crises can either be triumphant or tragic which leads to the new civic order. One recent example of the recent Fourth Turning is the Great Depression and World WarⅡ.

A knowledge of the cyclical nature of the history can help navigate us through hard time and help prepare us for the future. The collective spirit is essential in the Fourth Turning of the cycle. On the government level, there should be sufficient investment in defense to prepare for large-scale war in advance. At the individual level, we should strengthen our relationship with the family, friends and community. Face to face contacts with those people is a must and bringing people together becomes essential.

And last but not least, it’ll be wise to practice good financial habits so that we can create some sort of financial safety net to move ahead with at least some minimum security even in the worst-case scenario. In Computer Science, while programming we write the algorithm considering the worst case scenario and calculate the Big-O complexities of an algorithm so that we can write the optimum code and system does not break. I see this as a metaphor to the preparation we need for the Fourth Turning.

In summary, this book explores the concept of generational cycles and the recurring patterns of history. It identifies the Fourth Turning as a period of crisis and transformation, driven by the interplay of generational archetypes. It provides insights into past cycles of American history and offers a framework for understanding the current societal challenges and the potential for a brighter future. By recognizing the signs and dynamics of a Fourth Turning, individuals and institutions can play an active role in shaping the outcome and building a better future for society.

Looking at the current stuff going on in America and around the world including COVID which most of us dont even care anymore about knowing about its true origin. How are we going to overcome same situation again if we dont get to the root cause? What are the the consequences of mRNA vaccines? Who will hold the people who coerced it, accountable to its ramification? US proxy war in Ukraine with Russia, recent hearing about the multi decade UFO program where the whistleblower opened about the non human biological matter/non human pilot found at the crash site, cocaine found in The White House, US Dollar losing its power as hegemony, BRICS nation working on Gold backed/linked currency which may be related to the price of Gold or its weight. Either way will take the US dollar down, which means not only dollar but all the currencies in the international monetary system will collapse and there will be the rise of new currency. Lets also consider recent technological revolution, political revolution, financial revolution, single corporation trying to create, control and distribute one world currency (worldcoin). Its very interesting how the fourth turning is playing out.

IF you want to know more about money, you can check out Layered Money. Thanks for reading. See you on next one.

You can buy me a coffee if you enjoyed 😉

BTC Address:

bc1q0859dv58ppwcvraq48et98thamkqlm2j24dult